A Systematic Approach for Selecting Climate Projections to Inform Regional Impact Assessments (Final)
Citation:
U.S. EPA. A Systematic Approach for Selecting Climate Projections to Inform Regional Impact Assessments (Final). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-20/309, 2020.
Impact/Purpose:
The report describes the approach used by a new online tool that allows users to quickly and transparently identify climate projections relevant to a specific research or assessment question. The report also reviews and describes intractable challenges typically encountered when the identification and acquisition of climate projections is needed.
Description:
Advances in both the scientific understanding of the climate system and the capability to produce climate simulations have led to a growing number of new and updated projections of future climate suitable for use in impacts, vulnerability, and risk assessments in the United States. The volume and complexity of this information present immense challenges for non-specialists attempting to identify relevant projections for their specific analytic or assessment needs. This report presents a practical approach for selecting climate projections, which are simulated responses of the climate system based on a set of assumptions about changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings. Specifically, it provides guidance to help users answer the question, which climate projection(s) should I use? It accomplishes this by helping users visualize strategies for capturing the key uncertainties represented by all the available model projections, using a manageable number of representative projections that can serve as input into their analysis or assessment.